Monday, February 20th 2017 –  13:00 – 14:00

Maison des Sciences Économiques, Room 19

 Maison des Sciences Économiques, 106-112 bd de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris, Métro 5 Campo Formio, bus 57, 67, 27, 83 ou 47

Juan CARLUCCIO
(Banque de France)
with  A. CUNAT (University of Vienna), H. FADINGER (University of Mannheim) and C. FONS-ROSEN (Universitat Pompeu-Fabra)
Offshoring and Skill-upgrading in French Manufacturing: A Heckscher-Ohlin-Melitz View

Abstract – Using French manufacturing firm-level data for the years 1996 to 2007, we uncover a novel set of stylized facts about offshoring behavior: (i) Low-productivity firms obtain most of their inputs domestically. (ii) Firms with higher productivity offshore skill intensive inputs to skill-abundant countries and are more labor intensive than non-importers in their domestic production. (iii) Firms with even higher productivity also import labor-intensive inputs from labor-abundant countries and are more skill intensive than non-importers. Inspired by these findings, we produce a model in which heterogeneous firms, subject to fixed costs, can offshore intermediate inputs of different skill intensities to countries with different skill premia.Heckscher-Ohlin-like forces operate at the within-industry level, leading to endogenous variation in domestic skill intensities across firms. We provide econometric evidence supporting the factor-proportions channel through which reductions in offshoring costs to labor-abundant
countries have increased firm-level skill intensities of French manufacturers.

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Monday, February 6th 2017 –  13:00 – 14:00

Maison des Sciences Économiques, Room 19

 Maison des Sciences Économiques, 106-112 bd de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris, Métro 5 Campo Formio, bus 57, 67, 27, 83 ou 47

Pamela BOMBARDA
(ThEMA, Université Cergy-Pontoise)
with  M. BAS (CES, Université Paris 1), S. JEAN (CEPII) and G. OREFICE (CEPII)
Does firms’ exposure to export markets affect skilled and unskilled labor volatility?

Abstract – Firms engaged in the global economy affect local labor markets. Little is known, however, about the causal impact of firms’ export exposure on the volatility of employment of different skills. This paper tests simple mechanisms through which firms’ export intensity has a heterogeneous effect on the volatility of skilled and unskilled labor. Under skilled intensive fixed export costs and unskilled intensive variable production, firms exporting more products to more destinations will have a larger volatility of unskilled labor relative to skilled one. Using detailed firm level data from France for the period 1996-2007 and instrumental variable estimations we investigate the causal relationship between firms’ trade exposure and the volatility of employment of different skills. Our findings suggest that firm’exports, driven by exogenous foreign demand shocks, are positively correlated with unskilled labor volatility and negatively correlated with skilled labor volatility.

Monday, January 9th 2017 –  13:00 – 14:00

Maison des Sciences Économiques, Room S19

 Maison des Sciences Économiques, 106-112 bd de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris, Métro 5 Campo Formio, bus 57, 67, 27, 83 ou 47

Julian HINZ
(Kiel Institute for the World Economy)
with M. CROZET (Chinese University of Hong Kong and CEPII)
Friendly Fire: The Trade Impact of the Russia Sanctions and Counter-Sanctions

Abstract – Economic sanctions are a frequent instrument of foreign policy. In a diplomatic conflict, they aim to elicit a change in the policies of foreign governments by damaging their economy. However, sanctions are not costless for the sending economy, where domestic firms involved in business with the target countries might incur economic damages. This paper evaluates these costs in terms of export losses of the diplomatic crisis that started in 2014 between the Russian Federation and 37 countries (including  the United States, the EU, and Japan) over the Ukrainian conflict for the implicated countries. We first gauge the impact of the sanctions’ regime using a structural gravity framework and quantify the trade losses in a general equilibrium counterfactual analysis. We estimate this loss at US$114 billion from 2014 until the end of 2015, with US$ 44 billion being borne by sanctioning Western countries. Interestingly, we find that the bulk of the impact stems from products that are not directly targeted by Russian retaliations (taking the form of an embargo on imports of agricultural products). This result suggests that most of the losses are not attributable to the Russian retaliation but to Western sanctions. We then investigate the underlying mechanism at the firm level using French customs data. Results indicate that neither consumer boycotts nor perceived country risk can account for the decline in exports of products that are not targeted by the Russian embargo. Instead, the disruption of the provision of trade finance services is found to have played an important role.

Lundi 28 novembre 2016,  13:00 – 14:00

Maison des Sciences Économiques, Salle 115

 Maison des Sciences Économiques, 106-112 bd de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris, Métro 5 Campo Formio, bus 57, 67, 27, 83 ou 47

Claire LELARGE
(Banque de France et CEPR)
avec J. BLAUM (Brown)
et M. PETERS (Yale)

The Gains from Input Trade in Firm Based Models of Importing

Abstract – Trade in intermediate inputs allows firms to reduce their costs of production and thus benefits consumers through lower prices of domestically produced goods. The extent to which firms participate in foreign input markets, however, varies substantially. We develop a methodology to measure how consumer prices are affected by input trade in environments that allow for such heterogeneity in import behavior. We provide a theoretical result that holds in a variety of settings: the firm-level data on value added and domestic expenditure shares in material spending is sufficient to compute changes in consumer prices. Approaches that abstract from firm level heterogeneity and rely on aggregate statistics give biased results. In an application to French data, we find that prices of manufacturing products would be 27% higher in the absence of input trade.

Lundi 14 novembre 2016,  13:00 – 14:00

Maison des Sciences Économiques, Salle 115

 Maison des Sciences Économiques, 106-112 bd de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris, Métro 5 Campo Formio, bus 57, 67, 27, 83 ou 47

Alessandro RIBONI
(École polytechnique, CREST)
avec A. ALESINA (Harvard)
et B. REICH (Northwestern)

Nation-Building, Nationalism and Wars

Abstract – The increase in army size observed in modern times changed the way states conducted wars. Starting in the 19th century, states switched from mercenaries to a mass army by conscription. In order for the population to submit (more or less) willingly to conscription, government elites began to provide public goods, reduced rent extraction and adopted nation-building policies.

Lundi 17 octobre 2016,  13:00 – 14:00

Maison des Sciences Économiques, Salle S/115

 Maison des Sciences Économiques, 106-112 bd de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris, Métro 5 Campo Formio, bus 57, 67, 27, 83 ou 47

Hélène LATZER
(CNRS, CES)
avec Raouf BOUCEKKINE (Université Aix-Marseille, AMSE)
et Mathieu PARENTI (ULB, ECARES)

Variable mark-ups in the long-run:
a generalisation of preferences in growth models
 This paper introduces variable markups in a horizontal-differentiation growth model by considering the larger class of indirectly additive preference specifications, that nests the classic CES specification usually present in the workhorse love-for-variety models. Our first result is to obtain a generalized characterization of the Euler condition for this broader class of utility functions: in our model, the Euler rule features a supplementary term aiming at compensating the consumer for variations in the preference for variety along the consumption level. We are then also able to demonstrate that in our generalized framework, the economy’s balanced growth path displays both endogenous markups AND a strictly positive growth rate of the number of available varieties (being the engine of growth). We then show that under endogenous markups, the economy’s growth rate and firms’ market power can display a negative correlation, as opposed to the standard result obtained in the CES framework and as empirically relevant (Aghion et al, 2005). Finally, we demonstrate the existence of a market-size effect on mark-ups in our dynamic framework, a property being absent from static set-ups featuring indirectly additive preferences.

Lundi 03 octobre 2016,  13:00 – 14:00

Maison des Sciences Économiques, Salle S/115

 Maison des Sciences Économiques, 106-112 bd de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris, Métro 5 Campo Formio, bus 57, 67, 27, 83 ou 47

Olivier CHARLOT
(Université Cergy Pontoise, ThEMA)
avec Pierre CAHUC (CREST), Franck MALHERBET (CREST), Hélène BENGHALEM (CREST) et Emeline LIMON (ThEMA)
Taxation of Temporary Jobs : Good Intentions with Bad Outcomes?
This paper analyzes the consequences of the taxation of temporary jobs recently introduced in several European countries to induce …firms to create more open-ended contracts and to increase the duration of jobs. The estimation of a job search and matching model on French data shows that the taxation of temporary jobs does not reach its objectives: it reduces the mean duration of jobs, decreases job creation, employment and welfare of unemployed workers. We …find that a reform introducing an open-ended contract without layoff costs for separations occuring at short tenure would have opposite effects.