Monday, June 24th, 2019 –  13:00 – 14:00

Maison des Sciences Économiques, Room S3

 Maison des Sciences Économiques, 106-112 bd de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris, Métro 5 Campo Formio, bus 57, 67, 27, 83 or 47

Clément Malgouyres
(IPP)
with Thierry Mayer (Sciences-Po) and Clément Mazet-Sonilhac (Sciences-Po)

Technology-induced Trade Shocks? Evidence from Broadband Internet Expansion in France.

Abstract: In this paper, we document the presence of “technology-induced” trade in France between 1997 and 2007 and assess its impact on consumer welfare. We use the staggered roll-out of broadband internet to estimate its causal effect on the importing behavior of affected firms. Using an event-study design, we find that broadband expansion increases firm-level imports by around 25%. We further find that the “sub-extensive” margin (number of products and sourcing countries per firm) is the main channel of adjustment and that the effect is larger for capital goods. Finally, we develop a model where firms optimize over their import strategy and which  yields a sufficient statistics formula for the quantification of the effects of broadband on consumer welfare. Interpreted within this model, our reduced-form estimates imply that broadband internet reduced the consumer price index by 1.7% and that the import-channel, i.e. the enhanced access to foreign goods that is allowed by broadband, accounts for a quarter of that effect.

 

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Monday, May 27th, 2019 –  13:00 – 14:00

Maison des Sciences Économiques, Room S3

 Maison des Sciences Économiques, 106-112 bd de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris, Métro 5 Campo Formio, bus 57, 67, 27, 83 or 47

Lorenzo Rotunno
(AMSE)

Wage inequality and skill supplies in a globalised world.

Abstract: We investigate empirically, and explain theoretically, how the relative wages of skilled and unskilled workers vary with their relative supplies in open economies. We show that relative wages respond to variation in skill supplies in countries that trade, but also that this response decreases with the degree of openness to trade. Structural estimation of a model incorporating finite trade elasticities yields a good fit with the observed variation in wages and skill supplies across countries and over time..

 

Monday, May 13th, 2019 –  13:00 – 14:00

Avec le soutient du projet ANR JASI (ANR-16-FASI-0001)

Maison des Sciences Économiques, Room S3

 Maison des Sciences Économiques, 106-112 bd de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris, Métro 5 Campo Formio, bus 57, 67, 27, 83 or 47

Cem Özgüzel
(PSE)

Immigrant Mobility and Local Labor Markets. Evidence from the Great Recession in Spain. 

Abstract: This paper provides the first direct evidence on how the labor mobility of immigrants cushions natives during a labor demand shock. Spain was one of the hardest hit economies during the Great Recession. The immigrant population in the country responded to the drop in the labor demand by moving internally but also leaving the country. Focusing on this episode, using microdata from municipal registers and longitudinal Spanish administrative data, I study the effects of out-migration of the immigrant population on the wages and employment of the remaining natives. I build a shift-share instrument based on the past settlements of the immigrant population across Spain to instrument outflows and argue for a causal relationship. I find that out-migration of immigrants accelerated employment and wage growth of the natives, especially for those with higher substitutability with the leaving population. Moreover, I find that employment effects are driven by the entry to the employment of individuals who were unemployed or inactive, while wage effects were limited to those who were already employed. These findings reveal that labor market rigidities determine the adjustment margins to labor-supply shocks.

 

Monday, April 15th, 2019 –  13:00 – 14:00

Avec le soutient du projet ANR JASI (ANR-16-FASI-0001)

Maison des Sciences Économiques, Room S3

 Maison des Sciences Économiques, 106-112 bd de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris, Métro 5 Campo Formio, bus 57, 67, 27, 83 or 47

Isabelle CHORT
(Université de Pau)
with Maëlys de la Rupelle (Université Cergy)

Migration Flows in Times of Policy Tightening: Deterrence and Diversion

Abstract: Changes in immigration policies have theoretical ambiguous impacts on immigration and return flows, especially when policies are decentralized in free circulation areas, as is the case in the U.S. This study takes advantage of a unique survey conducted at the Mexican border since the mid-1990s. The data, collected at various points of the Mexican-US border, provide extensive information on Mexican intending to cross the border or returning from the US. We use those individual data to construct a  panel of migration flows from each Mexican to each U.S. State. Migration data are merged with information on immigration-related bills enacted in each U.S. state over 2005-2012. We investigate both the deterrence and diversion impacts of restrictive policies on immigrant inflows and returns, and on the composition of flows (undocumented vs documented, skilled vs unskilled). Preliminary results suggest the existence of a contemporaneous deterrence effect driven by low-skilled immigrants and diversion effects.

Monday, April 1st, 2019 –  13:00 – 14:00

Maison des Sciences Économiques, Room S3

 Maison des Sciences Économiques, 106-112 bd de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris, Métro 5 Campo Formio, bus 57, 67, 27, 83 or 47

Hélène LATZER
(CES)
with Kiminori Matsuyama (Northwestern University)  and Mathieu Parenti (Université Libre de Bruxelles)
The Market Size Effect in Endogenous Growth Reconsidered

Abstract: This paper aims at disentangling two effects of the labor supply size on long-run growth that are traditionally undistinguishable under preference homotheticity: a scale effect, and a market size effect. To reach this goal, we present two horizontal-innovation models of endogenous growth with non-homothetic preferences. We demonstrate in particular that in such set-ups, keeping the economy’s total effective labor supply constant, a “richer” country (i.e., with higher labor productivity and a smaller labor force) grows faster than a “poorer” country (i.e., with lower labor productivity and a larger labor force), leading the two countries to diverge.

Monday, March 18th, 2019 –  13:00 – 14:00

Avec le soutient du projet ANR JASI (ANR-16-FASI-0001)

Maison des Sciences Économiques, Room S3

 Maison des Sciences Économiques, 106-112 bd de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris, Métro 5 Campo Formio, bus 57, 67, 27, 83 or 47

Simone BERTOLI
(CERDI)
with Jesus Fernandez-Huertas Moraga (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)  and Lucas Guichard (IAB)
Rational inattention and migration decisions

Abstract: The standard micro-foundations of migration gravity equations, based on a random utility maximization model, assume that the individual-specific attractiveness of each destination is remotely and costlessly observable. We apply the insights from the literature on rational inattention in discrete choice models to migration decisions, to allow for a cost related to information acquisition. Such an extension of the canonical model entails that individuals with stronger priors about the identity of their utility-maximizing alternative rationally invest less in information acquisition. The theoretical model gives us an analytical expression for the expected value of information that can be computed from past bilateral migration flow data. Our econometric analysis reveals that migration flows originating from countries characterized by stronger priors are significantly less responsive to variations in economic conditions at destination.

Monday, February 18th, 2019 –  13:00 – 14:00

Maison des Sciences Économiques, Room S3

 Maison des Sciences Économiques, 106-112 bd de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris, Métro 5 Campo Formio, bus 57, 67, 27, 83 or 47

Ugo GRAGNOLATI
(CES)
with Alessandro Nuvolari (Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies) 
Innovation, Localized Knowledge Spillovers and the British Industrial Revolution, 1700-1850

Abstract: This paper estimates the determinants of the localization of patent inventors during the British industrial revolution. The location of innovative activities is reconstructed using the stated residence of patentees at the time of filing. We estimate a discrete choice model that allows to empirically disentangle the role of localized externalities vis-à-vis other geographical advantages, and we find the former to be a key driver of the geography of innovative activities during the British industrial revolution. In a broader perspective, our findings suggest that, despite the growth of publications devoted to scientific and technological matters, a significant component of the body of knowledge underlying innovative activities remained irreducibly “tacit” and “sticky”.