Julie Lochard

Monday, May 10, 2021 – 1pm-2pm

Online Seminar (ZOOM)

Link: https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/93108492223?pwd=Q1V0bHNveDdOdHFTUmpDSTNCM1hPdz09

Meeting ID: 931 0849 2223
Meeting Password: 036385

Global Value Chains: do they impact the allocation of foreign aid?

Julie Lochard
(ERUDITE, Université Paris Est Créteil et Economie Publique, INRAe)

co-authored with Basak Bayramoglu (Economie Publique, INRAe) and Jean-François Jacques (ERUDITE, Université Gustave Eiffel)

The rise of Global Value Chains (GVCs) in recent decades has induced significant changes in the organization and geography of world production, with consequences for bilateral and multilateral trade relations. In this paper, we investigate whether GVC-related bilateral trade is a driver of foreign aid allocation to developing countries. Using panel data on bilateral foreign aid from 22 donors to 127 recipient countries over the period 2000-2018, we find that a rise in the share of foreign value-added from a recipient country in donors’ exports increases the amount of aid allocated to that country. We also undertake a country and sectoral decomposition to analyze whether donors’ dependence on foreign value added is stronger for some countries or in specific sectors. Our results, robust to endogeneity, suggest that donors allocate aid strategically, especially in some sectors, in order to secure supplies of specific goods and services or to negotiate lower prices and better bilateral contracts.

Sandra Poncet

Monday, April 12, 2021 – 1pm-2pm

Online Seminar (ZOOM)

Link: https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/93108492223?pwd=Q1V0bHNveDdOdHFTUmpDSTNCM1hPdz09

Meeting ID: 931 0849 2223
Meeting Password: 036385

Demand for ethics in the fashion industry after the Rana Plaza collapse

Sandra Poncet
(PSE, University of Paris 1)

co-authored with Pamina Koenig (PSE, University of Rouen)

This paper analyzes the effects of a major reputational shock affecting apparel companies. The collapse of the Rana Plaza building in April 2013 generated a surge of activism and media coverage around the world specifically targeting the firms that sourced from the factories affected by the disaster. We combine company-level sales data in 47 countries between 2008 and 2017 and the number of news articles published in these countries that associated each company to the scandal. We use a difference-in-differences approach to investigate a possible consumer sanction against the companies cited for subcontracting with factories located in the Rana Plaza. We do not observe any effect specific to the Rana companies that would signal an unconditional sanction by consumers over the world. However, we identify a relative decline in the sales of Rana companies proportional to the local media coverage associating them with the disaster suggesting that local media are able to influence consumer choices by relaying specific information about the actions of companies.

Enxhi Tresa

Monday, March 29, 2021 – 1pm-2pm

Online Seminar (ZOOM)

Link: https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/93108492223?pwd=Q1V0bHNveDdOdHFTUmpDSTNCM1hPdz09

Meeting ID: 931 0849 2223
Meeting Password: 036385

Firm heterogeneity and trade in services

Enxhi Tresa
(THEMA, CY Cergy Paris University)

Services account for two thirds of world GDP and have an increasing role in trade and employment. In this paper, we use data from the Complementary Survey on International Trade in Services (ECEIS) for French firms and match it with French Custom data and balance sheet information from FIBEn. The main objective of the paper is to provide new insights about performance of French firms that trade in services: (i) in the import side, to identify heterogeneities in terms of imports of services and the sourcing mode (i.e. intra or inter-group); (ii) on the export side, look at the effect of exporting services together with goods on firms’ performance. We find that an increase of service imports is associated to an increase in exports. Regarding the sourcing mode, firms that import services intra-group export more, compared to firms that outsource from arms’ length. On the export side, in line with an existing literature, we find that bi-exporters (i.e. firms exporting goods and services), are more competitive.

Monday, March 15, 2021 – 1pm-2pm

Online Seminar (ZOOM)

Link: https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/93108492223?pwd=Q1V0bHNveDdOdHFTUmpDSTNCM1hPdz09

Meeting ID: 931 0849 2223
Meeting Password: 036385

Maria Bas
(University of Paris 1)

co-authored with Ana Fernandes (World Bank) and Caroline Paunov (OECD)

How resilient was trade to COVID-19?
The effects of China, technology and labour intensity

In this study we test the vulnerability of trade to the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic considering measures that capture sectoral labor intensity of production, dependence on inputs for which China is a dominant supplier, and complexity and innovation-intensity. We rely on global data on monthly trade flows from all countries in the world to four large destination markets: the United States, Japan, Germany, and France over the period January 2016-July 2020. We estimate difference-in-differences specifications including interaction terms between measures of COVID-19 incidence (deaths per capita) and containment policies (lockdown) and the production vulnerability measures and a stringent set of fixed effects.

Monday, March 1, 2021 – 1pm-2pm

Online Seminar (ZOOM)

Link: https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/93108492223?pwd=Q1V0bHNveDdOdHFTUmpDSTNCM1hPdz09

Meeting ID: 931 0849 2223
Meeting Password: 036385

Simon Galle
(BI Norwegian Business School)

co-authored with Linnea Lorentzen

The Unequal Effects of Trade and Automation
across Local Labor Markets

We examine how the combination of the China shock and automation of labor in manufacturing has unequally affected US commuting zones (CZs) by employing a multi-sector gravity model of trade with Roy-Fréchet worker heterogeneity across sectors where labor input can be automated. Automation and increased import competition both lead to contractions in sectoral labor demand and a decline in
relative income for CZs more specialized in that sector, amplified by a voluntary reduction in hours worked and an increase in frictional unemployment. The estimated model fits well with the aggregate performance of the manufacturing subsectors, and with the variation across CZs in changes in average income, the hourly wage, hours worked, the employment rate and employment in manufacturing. The individual China shock contributed almost as much as automation to the distributional effect of the combined shock, but its impact on aggregate gains is less than half of automation’s impact.

Monday, February 15th, 2021 – 1pm-2pm

Online Seminar (ZOOM)

Link: https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/93108492223?pwd=Q1V0bHNveDdOdHFTUmpDSTNCM1hPdz09

Meeting ID: 931 0849 2223
Meeting Password: 036385

Sarah Schneider-Strawczynski
(PSE et Paris 1)

co-authored with Jérôme Valette

Media Coverage, Salience of Immigration, and the Polarization of Attitudes

This paper examines to what extent media impact immigration preferences by modifying the salience of this topic in the political agenda. We measure the salience of immigration using original data including all the news covered in the main French national television evening programs, between January 2013 and 2017. We combine it with individual panel data that enables us to link each respondent to his/her preferred channel for political information. This allows us to address ideological self-selection into channels with individual-channel fixed effects. Conversely to former evidence in the literature, we do not find that an increase in the salience of immigration necessarily drives natives’ attitudes in a specific direction. Instead, our results suggest that it increases the polarization of natives by pushing individuals with moderate beliefs at the two extremes of the distribution of attitudes.

Monday, February 1st, 2021 – 1pm-2pm

Online Seminar (ZOOM)

Link: https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/93108492223?pwd=Q1V0bHNveDdOdHFTUmpDSTNCM1hPdz09

Meeting ID: 931 0849 2223
Meeting Password: 036385

Bastien Alvarez
(CNRS CES)

co-authored with Enxhi Tresa

European Integration and the Trade-off between Offshoring and Immigration

Following the 2004 EU enlargement, Western European countries progressively and sequentially opened their labour markets to Eastern European workers. We use that event to provide evidence of substitution between employing immigrant workers and production offshoring in Europe. We combine data from the European Labour Force Survey with the World Input-Output Database and use an instrumental variable to tackle potential endogeneity in the trade-migration relationship. We find that, following the openings of labour markets, Western European sectors where Eastern European workers have a larger presence import less value added in intermediate goods from Eastern Europe (i.e. a measure of offshoring). This effect mostly concerns low skilled immigrant workers. We explain that once labour markets were opened, it became relatively easier for firms to import workers rather than goods and fill in labour market needs. This work is, to our knowledge, the first to provide evidence regarding the effect of the EU enlargement-induced labour mobility on European and global value chain. It also contributes to the literature by looking at the trade-migration relationship at the sector and occupation level.

Monday, January 18th, 2021 – 1pm-2pm

Online Seminar (ZOOM)

Link: https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/93108492223?pwd=Q1V0bHNveDdOdHFTUmpDSTNCM1hPdz09

Meeting ID: 931 0849 2223
Meeting Password: 036385

Mathieu Parenti
(Université libre de Bruxelles, ECARES and CEPR)

co-authored with Sébastien Laffitte, Baptiste Souillard and Farid Toubal

Quantifying the Effects of International Tax Reforms

Many reforms have been proposed to ensure that multinational firms pay their income taxes where they carry on their activities. Assessing ex-ante their impact requires a counterfactual analysis that takes into account the level of corporate taxation and the set of factors influencing the location of sales, production, and profits of multinational firms. We build a quantitative general equilibrium model featuring multinational activities and international corporate taxation. The model is calibrated using recent data on bilateral trade of goods and services, multinational sales, and profits for 40 countries, including 7 major tax havens. Specifically, we propose a new methodology to infer the amount of bilateral profits shifted by multinational corporations. The model predicts the change in the relative attractiveness of countries, the variation of tax revenues and inequalities within countries, and the world-level efficiency induced by the implementation of a broad range of different reforms. These include scenarios that either reallocate taxing rights across countries and/or address profit shifting to entities subject to no or very low taxation. We show that reforms that redistribute taxing rights lead to more unequal gains that those which aim directly at curbing profit shifting. We also study the optimal parameters (minimum tax rate and allocation key) in different corporate tax configurations.

Monday, January 4th, 2021 – 1pm-2pm

Online Seminar (ZOOM)

Link: https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/93164156180?pwd=SjlnWVJPTEJ3cEx3YWFpeWJEM2w1UT09

Meeting ID: 931 6415 6180
Meeting Password: 863276

Jérôme Valette
(CES and Paris 1 Uni)

co-authored with Sekou Keita and Thomas Renault

The Usual Suspects. Offenders’ Origin, Media.
Reporting and Natives’ Attitudes Towards Immigration

This paper analyses how media reporting policies on crime impact natives’ attitudes towards immigration. We depart from most of the existing literature by investigating the content of crime-related articles instead of their coverage. Specifically, we use a radical change in local media reporting on crime in Germany, following hundreds of sexual assaults in Cologne on the 2015-2016 New Year’s Eve, as a natural experiment. This unique framework allows us to estimate whether systematically disclosing the origin of criminals affects natives’ attitudes towards immigration. Using individual survey data collected between January 2014 and December 2018 from the German Socio-Economic Panel and analysing more than 545,000 crime-related articles in German newspapers, and data on their diffusion across the country, we find that systematically mentioning the origin of criminals, especially when offenders are natives, significantly reduces natives’ worries about immigration.

Monday, December 7th, 2020 – 13:00 – 14:00

Online Seminar (ZOOM)

Link: https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/91781478663?pwd=OWdnampvTFF4U1N0a1BBcDZnTHdFUT09

Meeting ID: 917 8147 8663
Meeting Password: 367455

Federico Trionfetti
(Aix-Marseille University)
co-authored with Rocco Rante (Louvre Museum).

The Size and Geographical Distribution of Cities: Evidence from the X century.

Abstract: Using archaeological data of the ‘oasis’ of Bukhara in the X century we search for determents of the size and geographical distribution of cities. We use a simple model of location choice. We find that centrality and market access play a significant role while path dependence appears to be insignificant.