Monday, November 5th 2018 – 13:00 – 14:00
Maison des Sciences Économiques, Room 114
Maison des Sciences Économiques, 106-112 bd de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris, Métro 5 Campo Formio, bus 57, 67, 27, 83 or 47
with Michael Fidora and Martin Schmitz (European Central Bank)
Abstract: Building upon a behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) model, estimated at a quarterly frequency since 1999 on a broad sample of 57 countries, the paper assesses whether both the size and persistence of real effective exchange rate misalignments from the levels implied by economic fundamentals have been affected by the adoption of a single currency. A comparison of real misalignments across different country groupings shows they are smaller in the euro area than in its main trading partners. However, in the euro area real disequilibria are also more persistent, although after the global financial crisis the reactivity of real exchange rates to past misalignments increased, and therefore the persistence decreased. In the absence of the nominal adjustment channel, an improvement in the quality of regulation and institutions is found to reduce the persistence of real exchange rate misalignments.